Charles Sizemore stopped by the office last week to talk about the current state of the housing market, and demographic trends that could mean long-term growth for real estate even if the short-term outlook is rocky.
In a nutshell, we are facing a bit of muddled data right now as the big run-up off the bottom of the real estate market has created some froth in the markets. Homebuilder stocks including Toll Brothers (TOL), PulteGroup (PHM) and KB Home (KBH) have all been battered in 2013 after a strong 2012, and mixed data on housing starts lately is starting to hint that real estate isn’t as bullish as it was last year.
But Charles said that while there is admittedly a cooling off, in part because of fears of tighter central bank policy boosting mortgage rates, housing remains buoyed by long-term trends including the aging Millennials and an increase in household formation.
In short, in about five to 10 years folks will start a family and settle down in bigger numbers simply because of demographics. They are going to buy houses and boost real estate and housing as a result, so any short-term softness may in fact be a big long-term opportunity.
Charles Lewis Sizemore, CFA, is the editor of the Sizemore Investment Letter and the chief investment officer of investments firm Sizemore Capital Management. As of this writing, he had no position in any stock mentioned. Click here to learn about his top 5 global investing trends and get your copy of “The Top 5 Million Dollar Trends of 2013.”