Last week, I suggested that Microsoft ($MSFT) would be the ultimate winner in the long war for dominance of the smartphone and tablet markets.
Though Apple ($AAPL) dominates today, it has no real defensible “moats” that would prevent an aggressive competitor from muscling in on its turf. Consumers are notoriously fickle, and there is little to lock them into the Apple ecosystem. You can access your key services—such as Facebook ($FB), Twitter, Skype and even Apple’s iTunes—from just about any device, after all. And if Microsoft is able to leverage its dominance of the desktop market by familiarizing users with its Windows 8 operating system—which looks and feels more or less the same on desktops, tablets and smartphones—Microsoft may well dig the elusive moat that Apple has thus far been unable to dig.
Moreover, Apple’s “idea man,” the late Steve Jobs, is not something that can be replicated, and going forward Apple will find it increasingly harder to stay ahead of its competition.
As Apple discovered to its dismay during the PC era of the 1980s through the mid-2000s, computers are ultimately commodity products for which it is difficult to charge a premium (and yes, I lump smartphones, tablets and PCs together as “computers”). The iPhone’s popularity has been bankrolled by generous subsidies by service providers like AT&T ($T), Verizon ($VZ) and Sprint ($S). But as these carriers start to push back against subsidies, Apple will find it harder to maintain its margins without lowering its prices—something the company will be reluctant to do. In a very short period of time, Apple may again see itself fall from the position of industry leader to that of a niche provider.
None of this suggests Apple’s imminent demise, of course. As I wrote in the previous article, I’m talking about a long war of attrition that may take a few years to play out.
But none of this matters in the short term. In the short term, I expect most Big Tech stocks to move together in a fairly tight correlation as investors reassess the economic picture. For the remainder of 2012, I see investor risk appetites returning, and I see Apple and its competitors Microsoft and Google ($GOOG) leading a rally in technology shares.
I recommend investors pick up shares of the Technology Select SPDR ($XLK) and plan on holding for the remainder of 2012.
With the bad earnings releases of the third quarter mostly digested, I expect to see a broad-based market rally, and I expect more cyclical sectors such as technology to lead.
Disclosure: Charles Sizemore is long XLK through his Tactical ETF Model. This article first appeared on TraderPlanet.
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