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On CNBC: What’s the Outlook for Bonds?

It’s ‘all a bit upside down’ on market reactions to inflation outlook from CNBC.

 

Right now, it’s all about bond yields. The U.S. market has been extremely expensive by historical standards for several years now. Throwing out one popular valuation metric, the 10-year CAPE is sitting at 1998 levels. By some metrics (median price/sales ratio, for example), the market is the most expensive it’s ever been in history.

But as Warren Buffett has pointed out in multiple interviews, the market is not quite as expensive as it might seem at first glance when you consider how low bond yields are today.

Of course, the flip side of this becomes “What happens when bond yields start trending higher?” Suddenly, stock valuations start to matter again.

The 10-year yield has been trading in a range for several years now, with 3% being the upper limit of that range. I expect that yields will push a little over 3% before easing back into the mid 2’s. If something more or less in line with that happens, then I believe the bull market is safe and intact for the time being. Should yields push through that 3% level and keep on rising, then I think we should expect a lot more choppiness and volatility.

Other than bond yields, the economic backdrop is solid. Most of the data coming in is positive, and we haven’t seen the effects of corporate tax reform flow through to profitability yet. So, barring a quick reversal in growth (which I see as unlikely in the next 6 months) or a sharp uptick in inflation (which I also see as unlikely), the backdrop looks good for further gains.

Disclaimer: This material is provided for informational purposes only, as of the date hereof, and is subject to change without notice. This material may not be suitable for all investors and is not intended to be an offer, or the solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any securities nor is it intended to be investment advice. You should speak to a financial advisor before attempting to implement any of the strategies discussed in this material. There is risk in any investment in traded securities, and all investment strategies discussed in this material have the possibility of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The author of the material or a related party will often have an interest in the securities discussed. Please see Full Disclaimer for a full disclaimer.

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It’s The 1990s All Over Again

I joined Oriel Morrison and Martin Soong on CNBC this evening to chat about the market. It’s feeling a bit like the 1990s these days!

Is this market a return to the 1990s? from CNBC.

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided for informational purposes only, as of the date hereof, and is subject to change without notice. This material may not be suitable for all investors and is not intended to be an offer, or the solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any securities nor is it intended to be investment advice. You should speak to a financial advisor before attempting to implement any of the strategies discussed in this material. There is risk in any investment in traded securities, and all investment strategies discussed in this material have the possibility of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The author of the material or a related party will often have an interest in the securities discussed. Please see Full Disclaimer for a full disclaimer.

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What to Expect in 2018

I joined Oriel Morrison on CNBC to chat about tax reform, the Fed and what else we should expect in 2018:

A ‘good seasonal time’ to be invested from CNBC.

Disclaimer: This material is provided for informational purposes only, as of the date hereof, and is subject to change without notice. This material may not be suitable for all investors and is not intended to be an offer, or the solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any securities nor is it intended to be investment advice. You should speak to a financial advisor before attempting to implement any of the strategies discussed in this material. There is risk in any investment in traded securities, and all investment strategies discussed in this material have the possibility of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The author of the material or a related party will often have an interest in the securities discussed. Please see Full Disclaimer for a full disclaimer.

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On CNBC: What to Buy in the Final Weeks of 2017

I joined CNBC’s Oriel Morrison to chat about some of the best investment destinations for the final weeks of 2017:

 

Is it time to look at midstream oil and gas pipelines? from CNBC.

  

Disclaimer: This material is provided for informational purposes only, as of the date hereof, and is subject to change without notice. This material may not be suitable for all investors and is not intended to be an offer, or the solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any securities nor is it intended to be investment advice. You should speak to a financial advisor before attempting to implement any of the strategies discussed in this material. There is risk in any investment in traded securities, and all investment strategies discussed in this material have the possibility of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The author of the material or a related party will often have an interest in the securities discussed. Please see Full Disclaimer for a full disclaimer.

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Video: Walmart Puts Pressure on Amazon

Should Wal-Mart have used cash pile to take on Amazon? from CNBC.

I joined CNBC this evening to discuss Walmart’s (WMT) investor day… and how the company is upping the ante in its arms race with Amazon (AMZN).

Disclaimer: This material is provided for informational purposes only, as of the date hereof, and is subject to change without notice. This material may not be suitable for all investors and is not intended to be an offer, or the solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any securities nor is it intended to be investment advice. You should speak to a financial advisor before attempting to implement any of the strategies discussed in this material. There is risk in any investment in traded securities, and all investment strategies discussed in this material have the possibility of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The author of the material or a related party will often have an interest in the securities discussed. Please see Full Disclaimer for a full disclaimer.

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