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Russian Dividend Stocks: Not An Investment For Widows and Orphans

In case you had any concerns about the safety of Russian stocks, you can now set those fears aside. By Kremlin decree, Russian stocks will now start paying higher dividends.

As the Financial Times reported this week, “One of the reasons why Russian companies trade at a discount to their global peers is their historically low levels of dividend payments. In a bid to raise market valuations ahead of a series of privatizations, the Kremlin has been calling on state companies to share a larger proportion of their profits with investors.”

What a spectacular showing of shareholder-friendly management from the former bastion of international communism. If he wasn’t displayed in a glass coffin in Red Square for all to see, I might assume that Comrade Lenin was spinning in his grave.  Yay, capitalism.

Of course, another reason why Russian companies “trade at a discount to their global peers” is that they are located in Russia.

This is a country that still imprisons capitalists when they no longer toe the Kremlin line.  Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the former Chairman and CEO of oil giant Yukos and once Russia’s wealthiest man, has been rotting in prison since 2005 and is unlikely to see his freedom so long as Vladimir Putin rules the country.  But hey, maybe his wife and kids will appreciate the higher dividend payouts promised to Russian shareholders.

I have written for years about the virtues of dividend investing, and I firmly believe that the regular payment of a cash dividend encourages both honestly and managerial discipline.  It’s a lot harder to cook the books or waste shareholder money by chasing empire-building acquisitions when you are committed to writing a check to investors every quarter.  Furthermore, it guarantees that investors realize a return even during a flat market.

But does any of this apply when we are talking about a country that is effectively ruled by thugs and Mafiosi?

Make no mistake; I’m glad to see Russia encouraging its companies to pay a dividend.  All else equal, this is a step in the right direction.  But would I consider buying Russian dividend stocks for my conservative, income-focused investors?  If I did, I would hope that someone would lock me in a mental institution or, at the very least, strip me of my trading responsibilities.

And this is not to pick on Russia; I have been a buyer of Middle Eastern and African stocks in recent weeks via the iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (NYSE:$TUR) and the MarketVectors Africa ETF (NYSE:$AFK).  But I consider both to be highly-speculative positions that would only be appropriate for the most aggressive portion of a client’s portfolio.  And while I don’t complain about receiving a dividend on either, the dividend is not a major factor in my decision to invest in these regions.

(This ties into a broader theme that I’ve covered recently and that bears revisiting: Investors should NEVER chase yield.) 

In the case of Russian stocks, the payment of a dividend does not mitigate the risks posed by the absence of the rule of law in the country.  Given the risks, investors should only trade Russian stocks with a mind towards short-term price appreciation.

Investors looking for both high current income and emerging market growth should look instead to what I like to call “emerging markets lite.”  Look for established American and European firms with large and growing businesses in the emerging world.

Two I particularly like are Anglo-Dutch consumer products company Unilever (NYSE:$UL) and Dutch megabrewer Heineken (pink:$HINKY).

Disclosures: Sizemore Capital is long AFK, TUR, UL and HINKY.

Disclaimer: This material is provided for informational purposes only, as of the date hereof, and is subject to change without notice. This material may not be suitable for all investors and is not intended to be an offer, or the solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any securities nor is it intended to be investment advice. You should speak to a financial advisor before attempting to implement any of the strategies discussed in this material. There is risk in any investment in traded securities, and all investment strategies discussed in this material have the possibility of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The author of the material or a related party will often have an interest in the securities discussed. Please see Full Disclaimer for a full disclaimer.

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Naughty or Nice Part 2: 5 Delightfully Sinful Dividend Stocks

This is Part 2 of a two-part series on “Naughty and Nice”  dividend stocks.

In the last article, I gave you five socially-responsible stock picks that you could feel good about owning.  Now, we’re going to go a very different direction.  In this article, I’m going to give you five delightfully naughty dividend-paying stocks to consider.

I’ll start with a confession: I love sin stocks, and I always have.  Because they are politically incorrect, companies in the tobacco, alcohol and defense industries tend to trade at lower valuations and higher dividend yields than the broader market.  In effect they are perpetual value stocks, and investors with no qualms about investing in stocks with social stigmas attached to them benefit from this pricing.

For a longer explanation on the virtues of being bad, see “The Price of Sin.”

As I’ve written before, “Not All Sin Stocks are Created Equal,” and not all vice investments are strong dividend payers.  But the following five stocks all pay current yields well in excess of the market average.

I’ll start with a sin stock standard, American tobacco giant Altria ($MO).  As the poster boy for Big Tobacco, Altria is probably the most hated company in history. If Altria were a movie character, it would be Darth Vader.

It also happens to be the most profitable investment in history, according to Jeremy Siegel’s The Future for Investors.  Dr. Siegel’s calculation assumed the reinvestment of dividends, of course.   And when you buy shares of Altria, you should accept that you are buying the stock specifically for its dividend because the company’s business is in long-term terminal decline.  Cigarette smokers will continue to light up, but their ranks are not growing and cannot be expected to.

At current prices, Altria yields 4.70%.  This is a little lower than I would normally like to see for a tobacco stock, but it still makes Altria one of the highest-yielding stocks in the S&P 500.

Some of the best values in the vice sphere are in the “merchant of death” category, and the next stock is one that I covered in “Five Smart Money Dividend Stocks” as a stock owned by Magic Formula guru Joel Greenblatt: defense and aerospace firm Northrop Grumman Corporation ($NOC).

Northrop Grumman makes the sort of toys you might expect to see in a James Bond movie. Its aerospace division sells hardware and systems to government agencies for use in various mission areas, including intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, battle management, strike operations, electronic warfare, missile defense; earth observation and space exploration.

Northrop Grumman trades for just 9 times expected 2013 earnings and yields an impressive 3.3% in dividends.

Next on the list is one of Northrop Grumman’s competitors, Raytheon Company ($RTN). Raytheon offers integrated defense systems, including integrated air and missile defense, naval combat systems, and intelligence systems.

Raytheon is priced comparably to Northrop Grumman, trading for just 9 times earnings and yields 3.6%.

The entire defense sector is attractively priced at this time, and Northrop Grumman and Raytheon are two excellent dividend stocks.

Moving down the list of all things naughty, we come to booze.  And the single best play in the world of spirits is British-based Diageo PLC ($DEO), the largest and most diversified seller of premium alcoholic beverages in the world.

Diageo’s brands include Johnnie Walker scotch, Smirnoff vodka, Baileys Irish Cream liqueur, Crown Royal Canadian whiskey, Captain Morgan rum, Jose Cuervo tequila and many, many others.  The company has been a long-time favorite of the Sizemore Investment Letter for its exposure to emerging markets; Diageo already gets 40% of its revenues from emerging markets, and this number grows every year (see “Diageo: the Ultimate 12 to 18 Year Play”).

Diageo is a current constituent of the Mergent International Dividend Achievers Index, meaning the stock has a long history of raising its dividend, and currently yields a respectable 2.0%.

Another stock in the alcohol sphere I like is Dutch mega-brewer Heineken NV ($HINKY).

The global beer market is dominated by the Big 4—Anheuser Busch InBev ($BUD), Heineken, SABMiller ($SMBRY) and Carlsberg—though beer sales have been stagnant in the company’s core American and European markets.  Sales are booming in emerging markets, however, and the Big 4 continue to gobble up small local brands with reckless abandon.

Heineken is unique among Western multinationals in that it is not only a great indirect play on rising incomes in the developing world, but it is a great play on the development of Africa in particular.  Heineken already gets roughly a quarter of its revenues from Africa, and this percentage will only rise over time as the African middle class grows and develops.

Heineken pays a decent dividend of 2.1%.

So there we have it.  Investors looking to build an income portfolio have their choice of both naughty and nice dividend-paying stocks.  I recommend they take their pick of both.

Disclosures: Sizemore Capital is long MO, DEO and HINKY. This article first appeared on InvestorPlace.

Disclaimer: This material is provided for informational purposes only, as of the date hereof, and is subject to change without notice. This material may not be suitable for all investors and is not intended to be an offer, or the solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any securities nor is it intended to be investment advice. You should speak to a financial advisor before attempting to implement any of the strategies discussed in this material. There is risk in any investment in traded securities, and all investment strategies discussed in this material have the possibility of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The author of the material or a related party will often have an interest in the securities discussed. Please see Full Disclaimer for a full disclaimer.

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Naughty or Nice Part 1: 5 Dividend Stocks You Can Feel Good About Owning

This is Part 1 of a two-part series on “Naughty and Nice” dividend stocks.

Perhaps I’m some sort of anti-social deviant, but I’ve never been a big fan of socially-responsible investing.  It has always seemed crazy to me to ignore profitable investment opportunities because a company’s product happens to be politically incorrect at that particular moment.

And yes, notions of what constitutes “socially responsible” do happen to shift over time.  Not too long ago tobacco was considered a harmless vice and arms manufacturers were considered patriotic.

Likewise, all-American companies like McDonalds ($MCD) and Coca-Cola ($KO) are considered respectable investments today, but what about tomorrow?  After all, like tobacco companies, both sell products that are bad for your health.  And like cigarettes, many cities are starting to tax and regulate sugary soft drinks for public health reasons.

Nevertheless, I suppose there is nothing wrong with owning companies that make you feel good about yourself, so long as you maintain your objectivity.  I’ll give you five of my favorite “warm and fuzzy” stocks today.  To make this list, the company has be engaged in socially responsible businesses and must pay a respectable dividend.

Let’s start with Swiss food and confectionary giant Nestlé ($NSRGY).  Nestlé is one of the largest food and health products companies in the world, making everything from instant coffee to baby food.  (The ice cream and chocolate businesses might make Nestlé a little naughty, but we’ll wink and look the other way this time.)

Nestlé has recently made a smashing success of its Nespresso pods, endorsed by actor George Clooney—himself no stranger to feel-good charitable causes—and the company takes pride in its social responsibility. Nestlé’s former CEO Peter Brabeck-Letmathe summed up the company’s position: “As stewards of large amounts of shareholders’ capital, it is my firm belief that, in order for a business to create value for its shareholders over the long term, it must also bring value to society.”

Nestlé has backed up its words with actions over the years.  Nescafé, one of the company’s most iconic products, came out of an effort in the 1930s to help Brazilian coffee farmers deal with a serious oversupply coffee beans. Nestlé has done well by doing good.

The U.S.-traded Nestlé ADRs pay a dividend of 3.4%, which is quite a haul in today’s low-yield world.

Next on the list is electric utility PG&E Corp. ($PCG).  One might not normally think of a producer of electricity as being particularly socially responsible, but PG&E generates more than half of its power from non-greenhouse-gas-emitting sources.  24% comes from nuclear, 16% comes from hydroelectric, and another 16% comes from other renewables like wind and solar.

The company even generates a modest amount of power from bovine emissions.  Yes, you read that correctly.  They harness the methane put off by cow manure.

Even the company’s more mainstream sources are moderately green.  Natural gas, which accounts for 20% of PG&E’s output, is certainly cleaner than coal or petroleum.

True enough, California’s strict green energy standards have a way of creating energy shortages in the state and driving up costs.  There is something to be said for the “more is better” approach of my native Texas.

Nevertheless, PG&E has an energy portfolio that even a tie-dyed hippy from Sausalito could approve of.

PG&E pays a healthy 4.00% in dividends, so investors can enjoy a nice income stream while saving the environment.

The next company on the list—Japanese auto giant Toyota Motor Company ($TM)—might be a little bit of a stretch as a “dividend” stock.  At current prices, it only yields 1.6%.  Still, in a low-yield environment, that’s not half bad and it’s better than the current yield on the 10-year Treasury.

Toyota makes this list because it is the maker of the Prius, the car that made it “cool” to own a hybrid. For any readers that haven’t had the experience of driving one, the Prius is an impressive piece of engineering, to the point of sounding like something from a science fiction movie.  Even the brakes are a high-tech wonder; every time you put your foot on the brake pedal, the kinetic energy that would normally be lost to heat gets recaptured and converted into new power for the car.

Just a few years ago, I might have thought this was something from a Star Trek episode, but Toyota has made this technology available to the masses.

Global auto stocks are cheap and out of favor right now, and Toyota is no exception.  At current prices it trades for just 9 times expected earnings, 0.49 times sales, and 0.96 times book value.

Next on the list is operating system and office productivity  behemoth Microsoft ($MSFT).   I include Microsoft not so much for the company’s social responsibility as for the actions of its iconic founder, Bill Gates.  As the founder and co-chair of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Bill Gates is, in effect, the largest philanthropist in the world and one of the biggest supporters of HIV/AIDS research.

One may question some of Gates’ business practices while building Microsoft into its dominant global position, but no one can question that he has decided to make good use of his vast wealth.  He’s also acted as an inspiration to other high-profile billionaires, such as Berkshire Hathaway’s ($BRK-A, $BRK-B) Warren Buffett. (Berkshire Hathaway would have made this list, by the way, as I consider the company a model corporate citizen.  Alas, Mr. Buffett does not pay a dividend.)

Microsoft pays a respectable dividend at 2.6%, but Microsoft is also one of the fastest dividend growers of any large cap stock anywhere in the world.  Microsoft grew its dividend by 25% last year and by 23% the year before.  It may not keep up this torrid pace forever, but it is safe to say you won’t find this kind of dividend growth just anywhere.

And finally, I’ll add American consumer products giant Procter & Gamble ($PG).

Procter & Gamble makes everything.  Diapers, laundry detergent, shampoo, razor blades…you name it, they make it.

The company has made basic necessities affordable for hundreds of millions of people around the world and has improved world sanitation and health. Its Children’s Safe Drinking Water Program has made previously unsafe water drinkable in more than 65 countries and saved tens of thousands of lives.  Likewise, through its Live, Learn and Thrive cause, the company claims to have improved the lives of over 300 million children throughout the world with health and educational programs.

This charitable work is good for business as it builds goodwill and brand loyalty in the emerging markets that are the company’s future.

Procter & Gamble yields a safe 3.4% in dividends, which makes it one of the highest-yielding stocks for a company its size.

So, there you have it.  I’ve given you five socially responsible stock picks that you can feel good about owning while also getting paid a nice stream of growing dividends.  Watch out for Part II, where I’ll offer five delightfully naughty ways to enjoy the same.

Disclosures: Sizemore Capital is long MSFT, NSRGY and PG. This article first appeared on InvestorPlace

Disclaimer: This material is provided for informational purposes only, as of the date hereof, and is subject to change without notice. This material may not be suitable for all investors and is not intended to be an offer, or the solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any securities nor is it intended to be investment advice. You should speak to a financial advisor before attempting to implement any of the strategies discussed in this material. There is risk in any investment in traded securities, and all investment strategies discussed in this material have the possibility of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The author of the material or a related party will often have an interest in the securities discussed. Please see Full Disclaimer for a full disclaimer.

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Five Smart Money Dividend Stocks

Now and then it is nice to take a peek over the shoulder of a successful investor to see what their high-conviction buys are.  When you read a headline that “Warren Buffett is buying Company X,” you’re naturally inclined to do a little digging into Company X’s financials.  After all, if it’s good enough for Buffett, it might be good enough for you.

You have to be careful with this line of thinking, of course.   The SEC filings that disclose the holdings of large investors are generally pretty dated by the time we have access to them.  For all we know, the conditions that made a guru buy a given stock may no longer be valid by the time we read about it, and there are no guarantees that they haven’t already sold it.  For these reasons, I tend to focus on larger holdings, the conviction buys that they are likely to hold onto for a while.

Today, I’m going to look at one high-conviction dividend stocks each from five well-known superinvestors.  My criteria is simple enough: the stock must be a significant holding in the guru’s portfolio and it must pay a respectable dividend.

Guru

Stock

Ticker

Yield

Warren Buffett Wal-Mart

WMT

2.10%

David Einhorn Apple

AAPL

1.80%

Joel Greenblatt Northrop Grumman

NOC

3.30%

Bill Ackman General Growth Properties

GGP

 2.20%
Mohnish Pabrai Goldman Sachs

GS

1.8%

 

We’ll start with Mr. Buffett.  Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK-A) has been accumulating shares of retail behemoth Wal-Mart ($WMT), and it’s not hard to understand why.  Wal-Mart is exactly the kind of company that Buffett is famous for buying.     It has a dominant position as the leading discount retailer in the world.  It has competitive “moats” in its size and logistical efficiency that competitors have a hard time scaling.  And naturally, it’s attractively priced. Wal-Mart trades for 14 times 2013 expected earnings and at 0.55 times sales.  Its 2.10% dividend, while not exceptionally high, is growing at a nice clip.  Wal-Mart raised its dividend 9% last year and 20% the year before.

Our next guru is David Einhorn.  Einhorn is better known for some of his high-profile short positions—he even wrote a book about his short of business development company Allied Capital, Fooling Some of the People All of the Time—but he is certainly not afraid to make large, concentrated long bets as well.

As of his most recent filings, former high-flyer Apple ($AAPL) was his largest holding by a wide margin at fully 15% of Greenlight Capital’s publicly-traded long portfolio.

It is debatable whether Apple should be considered a “dividend stock” given that the company only recently started paying a dividend and yields less than the broader S&P 500.  Still, given Apple’s gargantuan $100 billion cash hoard and continued shareholder agitation, it is safe to assume the dividend will be rising in the years ahead.

Joel Greenblatt of Gotham Capital is one of my favorite gurus. His “Magic Formula” is one of the best stock screeners I have ever come across, and he gives away access to it for free.  I’ve stumbled across more great investment ideas than I can count from browsing his site, and I recommend that you give it a look.

Greenblatt is heavily invested in defense firms these days, and one that caught my eye was Northrop Grumman Corporation ($NOC).

Northrop Grumman is not a “high conviction” pick of Greenblatt, per se, as its weighting is not materially higher than any of his other holdings.  It is, however, a highly-profitable company selling at a very attractive price.  Northrop Grumman trades for just 9 times expected 2013 earnings and yields an impressive 3.3% in dividends.

Next on the list is Bill Ackman, Greenblatt’s former partner at Gotham Capital and the principal of Pershing Square Capital Management.  Ackman is an activist investor with a history of taking large positions in companies and then agitating for radical change.

One such company in need of radical change is the iconic American retailer JC Penney Company ($JCP).  Penney is Ackman’s largest position, comprising fully 17% of his portfolio.

The company recently cut its dividend and is in the midst of an existential crisis, so we’ll move down the list to his first dividend stock of any size, diversified REIT General Growth Properties ($GGP).

A retail REIT may raise eyebrows when consumer spending appears to be slowing, but investors don’t appear to be worried. General Growth is up 20% year to date, roughly double the return of the S&P 500.

With a yield of 2.20%, General Growth is certainly not a big income generator, particularly by REIT standards. Still, a reliable 2.2% is attractive in a low-yield world.

As a side note, Ackman has a large position in Sizemore Investment Letter recommendation Beam Inc ($BEAM), the maker of Jim Beam bourbon whiskey.  Though not much of a dividend stock, it is attractive as a recent spin-off and as a money-minting sin stock.

Finally, we come to Mohnish Pabrai, author of the Dhandho Investor and one of my favorite investors. Pabrai is known for running a highly-concentrated portfolio and for good reason.  As of his most recent filings, two thirds of his portfolio was invested in the financial sector.

Pabrai’s largest holding that pays a dividend of any size is Wall Street superbank Goldman Sachs (GS), which yields a modest 1.8%.

Pabrai is betting big on the financial sector, and Goldman alone accounts for over 19% of his portfolio.  To say that this was a “high-conviction” investment for Mr. Pabrai would be an understatement.

Of all the guru stocks profiled in this article, the one I find most compelling is Mr. Buffett’s Wal-Mart, which I own both personally and in client accounts.  Though considering the track records of each of the gurus, a case could be made for considering any of these dividend-paying stocks.

Disclosures: Sizemore Capital is long BEAM and WMT.

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided for informational purposes only, as of the date hereof, and is subject to change without notice. This material may not be suitable for all investors and is not intended to be an offer, or the solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any securities nor is it intended to be investment advice. You should speak to a financial advisor before attempting to implement any of the strategies discussed in this material. There is risk in any investment in traded securities, and all investment strategies discussed in this material have the possibility of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The author of the material or a related party will often have an interest in the securities discussed. Please see Full Disclaimer for a full disclaimer.

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Is There a Bubble In Dividend Stocks?

In the interests of brevity, I can make the answer short.

No. There is not a bubble in dividend-paying stocks.

This is not to say that defensive sectors of the market are not modestly overpriced relative to more cyclical sectors or that, when faced with paltry rates on bonds, some investors have not taken to chasing yield where they can find it. Dividend-paying stocks have certainly outperformed their non-dividend-paying sisters in 2012, and some dividend-focused indexes—such as the S&P Dividend Aristocrats—sit near all-time highs even while the rest of the market sells off.

But suggesting that there is a “bubble” in dividend investing implies that shares are drastically overpriced or that investors have wild, unrealistic expectations of future profit. In looking at a sample of American blue chips that often come up dividend screens, it is hard to make such a case.

Let’s start with that most iconic of American companies Coca-Cola ($KO). Coke is a special case because it is both a high current-dividend stock and a serial dividend grower. In addition to being one of Warren Buffett’s largest holdings, Coke is a constituent of the popular Dow Jones Select Dividend Index ETF ($DVY) and the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF ($VIG). Long suffering readers will remember that VIG, which requires its stock holdings to have at least 10 years of consecutive dividend increases, is my favorite ETF for long-term portfolio growth and a core holding of my ETF portfolios.

Coke trades for 17 times estimated 2013 earnings. To be sure, this is more expensive than the 13 times earnings of the broader S&P 500. But for a company of Coke’s quality and safety, it would hardly seem excessive. Coke may not be a screaming buy at current prices, but it would hardly seem overpriced.

The story is much the same among other popular dividend-paying blue chips. Johnson & Johnson ($JNJ), Wal-Mart ($WMT) and Procter & Gamble ($PG) trade at 12, 13, and 16 times 2013 estimated earnings, respectively. Again, this hardly suggests nosebleed valuations on the verge of crumbling.

Moreover, the investors piling into these stocks are not doing so in hopes of getting rich quick. This is not 1990s tech mania or 2000s condo flipping. Their goals are far more modest; they are looking for stable and consistent dividend growth that will outpace inflation over time.

When the market shifts back into “risk on” mode, every stock and ETF I’ve mentioned thus far in this article will likely underperform the broader S&P 500.

This is, of course, a problem for professional money managers who use the S&P as their benchmark. But individual investors—and particularly those in or near retirement—care much less about relative performance and far more about generating a stable income that does not depend on portfolio drawdowns.

It is ironic; while Wall Street has become more of a casino than ever in recent years, investors have become far more reluctant to risk their retirement to the whims of the market. Twelve years of very difficult market conditions have taught them that capital gains can be fleeting and that depending on them is a gamble they can’t afford to take.

This change in sentiment is not an incipient bubble, but I believe it is a long-term regime shift in investor preference that should be welcomed. I hope it lasts.

As investors demand higher yields, company boards will eventually acquiesce and give them what they want. They certainly have the capacity to do so. According to Howard Silverblatt, Standard & Poors’ research guru, the dividend payout of the companies of the S&P 500 is only 32% of earnings. This compares to a historical average of 52%.

This is an unambiguous good. The payment of a dividend has a way of focusing management attention and discouraging wasteful empire building. It aligns management with the preferences of long-term investors rather than short-term speculators. And in an age of scandals, dividends, unlike paper earnings, cannot be fabricated.

All of this reverses the trends of the past half century that spawned the cult of equity.  And again, it should be welcomed.

Disclosures: Sizemore Capital is long DVY, JNJ, PG, VIG, and WMT. This article first appeared on MarketWatch.

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Disclaimer: This material is provided for informational purposes only, as of the date hereof, and is subject to change without notice. This material may not be suitable for all investors and is not intended to be an offer, or the solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any securities nor is it intended to be investment advice. You should speak to a financial advisor before attempting to implement any of the strategies discussed in this material. There is risk in any investment in traded securities, and all investment strategies discussed in this material have the possibility of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The author of the material or a related party will often have an interest in the securities discussed. Please see Full Disclaimer for a full disclaimer.

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